Predictions for the Academy Award nominations being announced tomorrow, Jan. 24.
While there are the usual stone cold lock Oscar nominees this year, the current award season has divided up the booty just enough to make this an intriguing and challenging year for Oscar prognosticators.
I love a challenge so here – drumroll please – is my annual Oscar Tout Sheet, predicting who the nominees will be in the form of a racetrack tout sheet.
Two years ago, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences doubled the number of best picture nominees from five to 10 hoping to include more popular movies, not just the critically acclaimed art-house flicks. It worked, as ratings improved for the award telecast with a movie like The Blind Side in the mix.
However, perhaps thinking that an automatic 10 nominees watered down the quality somewhat, this year the Academy has created a complex mathematical system that will provide a minimum of five nominees and a maximum of 10.
There can still be 10 nominations, but those films would have to earn a certain percentage of first-place votes to move into a second round. The math gives me a headache, but basically there could be only five nominees this year or seven or eight or 10. Therefore I’ll also be guessing how many films will be nominated.
These are my odds, not the Vegas line. The nominations will be announced tomorrow, Tuesday, Jan. 24, at 8:30am on the morning news programs, and the Academy Awards will be presented on Sunday, Feb. 26, 8pm, on ABC, hosted by Billy Crystal.
Race 1: Best Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer, The Help 3 to 2
Jessica Chastain, The Help EVEN
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids 4 to 1
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs 6 to 1
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants 10 to 1
Octavia Spencer (The Help), Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs), and Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) will match their SAG nominations with Oscar bids, with Spencer the frontrunner after her Golden Globe win. There is also buzz that Bérénice Bejo from The Artist will snag a nomination, but I have a gut feeling Woodley, who held her own opposite Clooney, gets that final spot.
Race 2: Best Supporting Actor
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