Predictions for the 2011 Academy Award nominations
The ratings were up last year for the Academy Awards, the best since 2005, so the addition of five more selections to the best picture race did its job, getting more people interested in the Oscars. This year, the popularity of The Social Network with both critics and audiences should continue to boost the appeal of the Academy Awards for younger viewers.
Here are my annual Oscar nomination predictions in the form of a racetrack tout sheet. These are my odds not the Vegas line. The nominations will be announced Tuesday, Jan. 25, at 8:30am on the morning news programs, and the Academy Awards will be presented on Sunday, Feb. 27, 8pm on ABC, hosted by James Franco and Anne Hathaway.
Race 1: Best Supporting Actress
Melissa Leo, The Fighter 3 to 2
Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech 3 to 1
Amy Adams, The Fighter 4 to 1
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit 5 to 1
Mila Kunis Black Swan 6 to 1
Dale Dickey, Winter’s Bone 50 to 1
Not as clear cut as Mo’Nique’s win last year, but Golden Globe winner Melissa Leo is the frontrunner. My choice would be the brilliant Dale Dickey as an Ozark matriach in Winter’s Bone but she doesn’t have a chance. Leo is a well liked veteran and was terrific in The Fighter.
Race 2: Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter3 to 2
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech3 to 1
Mark Ruffalo, 4 to 1 The Kids Are All Right
Jeremy Renner, The Town 6 to 1
John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone8 to 1
Andrew Garfield, 10 to 1 The Social Network
This is a two horse race between Bale and Rush, both of whom could have been nominated as best actor based on the size of their roles. John Hawkes earned a Screen Actors Guild (SAG) nomination, which is why I think he’ll beat out Andrew Garfield.
Race 3: Best Actress
Natalie Portman, Black SwanEVEN
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole4 to 1
Annette Bening,5 to 1 The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone8 to 1
Hilary Swank, Conviction12 to 1
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine15 to 1
Natalie Portman is brilliant in the role and pregnant, which means she will win; Oscar history dictates that conclusion. Only Nicole Kidman has an outside chance of beating her. Jennifer Lawrance would be my choice but she is a newcomer and has to earn her dues. Swank’s SAG bid gets her in the fifth spot ahead of indie film favorite Michelle Williams.
Race 4: Best Actor
Colin Firth, Tbe King’s Speech 3 to 2
James Franco, 127 Hours 3 to 1
Jeff Bridges, True Grit 4 to 1
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network 6 to 1
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter 10 to 1
Robert Duvall, Get Low 12 to 1
Colin Firth lost to Jeff Bridges last year which gives him the edge, plus he is playing someone with a handicap, and Oscar loves that. I would love to see James Franco win in an upset. And, while I loved Robert Duvall in Get Low and he earned a SAG nomination, I have a gut feeling Mark Wahlberg gets the final slot for his low key performance.
Race 5: Best Director
David Fincher, The Social Network 1 to 5
Christopher Nolan, Inception 3 to 1
Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech 5 to 1
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan 8 to 1
Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit 8 to 1
The Social Network is going to win best picture and this year that means David Fincher wins as well. Nolan and Hooper are the only other directors that have an outside chance of beating him.
The Oscar Derby: Best Picture
The Social Network 1 to 5
The King’s Speech EVEN
Inception 2 to 1
Black Swan 4 to 1
True Grit 6 to 1
The Fighter 8 to 1
Toy Story 3 8 to 1
127 Hours 10 to 1
Rabbit Hole 15 to 1
Winter’s Bone 25 to 1
The Social Network will win, with the only real competition coming from Inception and The King’s Speech. I’m not happy about it but railing against the popular choice is pointless. I’ll feel better if the indie film sensation Winter’s Bone slips into the last spot.
What are your picks? Leave a comment below.
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