Atlantic City Weekly

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Let’s face it Eagles fans. When it came down to a choice of Tampa Bay, the Giants or Green Bay, you were praying it was not going to be the Packers with their great pass rush, led by likely Defensive Player of the Year Clay Matthews and wily veteran Charles Woodson, coupled with the offensive skills of top quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

However, after a season that saw the Philadelphia Eagles go from youth movement rebuilding mode with Kevin Kolb into an explosive offensive juggernaut led by the born again league MVP candidate Michael Vick, Eagles fans already had their prayers answered.

In scanning the Internet, it becomes obvious that the national media has looked at how poorly the Eagles have played recently, that their effectiveness on offense and defense has been on a downward slide in the second half of the year, and are picking the Packers. You can’t blame them. Peter King from Sports Illustrated has picked the Pack to make it to the Super Bowl, and Vegas’s 2½ point favorite point spread for the Eagles at home is essentially a pick’em. Even six of the eight hometown sportswriters at the Philadelphia Daily News are picking the Packers.

Earlier in the week I was leaning the same way, but Andy Reid is 7-1 as a coach in game one of the playoffs, and the Packers have lost their last four playoff games on the road. On top of that, by resting his starters in the final game against Dallas, he was basically make it a bye week for his team and we know how well Reid’s teams play after a bye week.

The Breakdown

Packers Offense vs. Eagles Defense
Aaron Rodgers is a great QB and he is at his best against the blitz, with an astounding 107.4 rating. He has plenty of talented receivers including Greg Jennings and veteran Donald Driver. In the first game of the season against Philadelphia, the Birds blitzed a ton and forced two Rodgers' interceptions. Lately the Packers have improved significantly against the blitz and the Eagles defense has been on a downward slide, with less takeaways and giving up an average of 23 points a game. They have also been the worst team in the red zone all season. The Packers weakness is in the run game; they lost their top running back, Ryan Grant, in week one and second stringer Brandon Jackson averages just 3.7 yards a carry. The Eagles secondary has playmaker Assante Samuel but little else to stop the Packers air attack.

Advantage: Packers

Eagles Offense vs. Packers Defense
If Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson connect on one of their patented big plays early in the game, that should open up the running game for Shady McCoy, who figures to get plenty of work as a runner and receiver. Wideout Jeremy Maclin is also a dangerous receiver. The key is Vick. If he can be effective in the pocket, and if the Eagles offensive line can keep Clay Matthews and a blitzing Charles Woodson from killing Vick (a very big if), expect the Eagles to score a lot of points. The Packers are weak against the run. If Vick gets some yardage with his legs, the Packers will have to be more cautious with its pass rush.

Advantage: Eagles

Special Teams
The Eagles have a Pro Bowl kicker in David Akers, and LeSean Jackson is a dangerous punt receiver. Punter Sav Rocca has a great net average (eighth in the league at 39.0) and his directional punting has been superb lately. The Packers' Mason Crosby is a middle of the pack PK and punter Tim Masthay is eighteenth in the league in net average (37.6). Punt returner Tramon Williams is ordinary.

Advantage: Eagles
 

Prediction

The Eagles are only 4-4 at home this season but the playoff excitement will be off the hook at the Linc. The season long redemption tour for Michael Vick will be a failure if he can’t win this first playoff game as the Eagles starter. My gut is telling me that won’t happen. Well rested and with so much to prove, Vick will have a great game with his feet and his arm. Andy Reid will have a game plan that works. The defense won’t be great but it will do enough to slow down the Packers just enough for Vick to do the rest.

A shootout favors the Eagles: Eagles 34-Packers 31

Who do you think will win this game?