In a 2019 that brought 8 tornadoes to the Garden State and the most number of severe thunderstorm warnings since records started in 1989, a chance to add to those numbers come on Tuesday. 

We'll start off Tuesday morning much differently than how we started the night on Monday. The crisp feel has been replaced by a sticky airmass as moist air made a big surge in overnight. Dew points will be around 70, sticky, for most of the day. 

To the west, will be a decaying complex of thunderstorms that organized into a large system (called a mesoscale convective system). This MCS will be the culprit for our severe weather Tuesday.

The risk for a storm will begin between 9 a.m. to 11 a.m. This should be non severe and not cancel your outdoor plans, as coverage should be limited into the early afternoon. A strong southwest breeze will develop around 15 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. 

I'm eyeing a lull in the activity from the early afternoon until around 6 p.m. This will be a critical time. If it clouds up, our severe weather risk will go way down (highs in the low 80s). If sun comes through, we'll be eyeing another severe weather event (highs in the upper 80s on the mainland). 

Here's the deal with the severe weather. 6 p.m. to midnight will be the time frame as a cold front passes. Do note that it won't storm the whole time. In terms of specific threats, wind damage will be of the highest concern. This will be followed by the risk for a weak tornado or two. Finally, hail will be possible, mainly of the small, non damaging variety.

On average, New Jersey sees two tornadoes a year, in the bottom rung of average tornadoes when it comes to states. That makes it all the more important that we know how to protect ourselves if a rare spin-up was to pass through where you are. When a tornado warning is issued, that is the time to seek shelter. Your location should determine where you should go. 

In terms of flooding from the rain, any thunderstorm will bring areas of roadway flooding. Localized 4 amounts will be possible. However, most will stay well under that. 

Make sure to stay weather aware during the day. If you have the internet, you can follow me online for more information.

On average, two tornadoes come through New Jersey each year, according to the National Weather Service. The rarity of this occurring means that we may not fully understand what a tornado watch or a tornado warning fully means. In short, a tornado watch means that tornadoes are favorable for development, but did not occur. When a tornado is spotted on the ground, or when radar indicates a tornado, a tornado warning will be issued.

After midnight, the rain will end. We should get to about partly cloudy, too. Lows will be in the low 70s, with plenty of humidity in the air. It'll feel like a steam bath.

Wednesday will see some sunshine to start. The front will sit just to our south. Winds will flip to the northeast, bringing us cooler, but still sticky air. Highs will be on either side of 80. Isolated afternoon storms will be expected, mainly south of the White Horse Pike. However, no severe weather will be likely. 

Wednesday night looks to be cool enough to leave the windows open at night. We'll sit between 65-70 under a partly cloudy sky. Thursday will be pretty much the same as Wednesday. The onshore flow will continue. It'll be a mostly dry day for everyone, with just a spot p.m. storm around toward Cape May.

Expect a few inches of bay water along sensitive bayshore roadways on Wednesday night around the time of high tide. Minor coastal flooding will be expected. 

Sign up to receive the area's top entertainment headlines delivered to your inbox every Thursday.

* I understand and agree that registration on or use of this site constitutes agreement to its user agreement and privacy policy.